Sponsored by Finger Lakes Technologies Group, Inc.
The following index was created by Dr. Elia Kacapyr, an economics professor at Ithaca College. It is a composite indicator built on the performance of six indicators: number of jobs in Tompkins County, retail sales (adjusted for inflation), air passengers at Ithaca Tompkins Regional Airport, building permits issued in Tompkins County, number of home sales, and help wanted advertising. To learn more, please visit Dr. Kacapyr’s website at: http://www.ithaca.edu/economics/tcdex.htm |
| February 2008 The local economy pulled back a bit in February after posting strong gains in January. The Index of Economic Activity in Tompkins County dipped to a reading of 154.12 from a revised mark of 154.88 in January. This amounts to a decline of 0.49 percent. Economic activity was up 1.87 percent compared to February 2007. Improved employment figures were offset by declines in air traffic, building permits, and home sales. Retail sales and help wanted advertising held steady. |
Tompkins County created 800 jobs in February to bring total non-farm employment to 64,200. That is 500 more jobs than in February 2007. The new jobs were in our bread and butter industry – education and health services. The unemployment rate was 3.5 percent. In New York State the unemployment rate was 5.0 percent and 5.2 percent nationally.
County retail sales totaled $131.0 million, almost the exact same figure as January. However, this figure is 4.59 percent higher than February 2007. After vaulting more than 11 percent in 2005, retail sales in Tompkins County have been growing about 5 percent a year for the past two years.
The number of passengers arriving and departing from Ithaca Tompkins Regional Airport in February descended 2.24 percent to 15,093. However, compared to February 2007 air traffic was up 19.92 percent. Residential building permits issued in Tompkins County tumbled 61.67 percent in February.
Permits have a tendency to swing widely from month to month and a change of this amount is not unusual. Indeed, building permits are higher through the first two months of 2008 than for the comparable months of 2007.
Existing home sales fell 14.55 percent in February, but compared to February 2007 home sales were up 19.35 percent. The average selling price was $208,000, while the median home sold for $159,000. Help wanted advertising inched ahead 1.37 percent in February. This is a marginal increase for this indicator of labor market conditions.
It is critical to keep up with data revisions. The employment data undergo a major revision each January and the most recent annual revision has been very favorable for the local economy. The number of jobs created in 2007 in the County was revised upward from 200 to 600. The new numbers indicate that the Tompkins County economy grew 0.9 percent in 2007. Before the revision the growth rate was thought to be 0.1 percent. |
| County Economy Ends Year on a Soft Note The local economy ran out of steam in the last month of 2007. The Index of Economic Activity in Tompkins County dipped to a reading of 152.07 from a revised mark of 153.45 in November. This amounts to a decline of 0.37 percent. Compared to December 2006, economic activity was up 0.37 percent. Modest gains in employment, home sales, and help wanted advertising were overtaken by losses in retail sales, air traffic, and building permits. |
The number of jobs in Tompkins County held steady from November to December at 63,400. That is 400 more jobs than in December 2006. The County created 200 jobs in 2007. In a good year, like 2003, we create about 1,000 new jobs. The unemployment rate in December was 3.1 percent. In New York State the unemployment rate was 4.7 percent and 4.8 percent nationally.
County retailers had a better than expected holiday season. Retail sales for November and December 2007 totaled $282 million for a gain of 7.4 percent over last year. Holiday sales were expected to be 5 percent higher in Tompkins County this year. December itself was not a good month for retail sales suggesting that people did their holiday shopping early.
The number of passengers arriving and departing from Ithaca Tompkins Regional Airport in December descended 14.69 percent to 12,553. However, compared to December 2006 air traffic was up 8.50 percent. Residential building permits issued in Tompkins County crumbled 36.80 percent in December. Permits have a tendency to swing widely from month to month and a change of this amount is not unusual. There were 16.2 percent fewer building permits issued in 2007 than 2006.
Existing home sales rose 3.62 percent in December, but for the year home sales were off 8.2 percent. Help wanted advertising inched ahead 2.75 percent in December. This is a marginal increase for this indicator of labor market conditions.
The figures for 2007 will be revised in the months ahead but the current numbers show that the Tompkins County economy grew by 0.1 percent last year. With the national economy struggling, 2008 could be an even tougher year. Our own forecast for 2008 is based on the County economy avoiding a recession and growing 1.0 percent.  The Index of Economic Activity in Tompkins County is a public service of Ithaca College. Maintained by Elia Kacapyr (kacapyr@ithaca.edu) |
